This week’s summary

There are lots of various actions attributable to ICE this week. Few of them are listed below:

• ICE flights out of the L.A. area more than doubled in the last month – sustained ICE raids in the region have yielded 330 arrests as of June 6.
• ICE Imposes New Rules on Congressional Visits – although, a member of Congress can make an unannounced visit to an ICE facility under the federal law, a new guidance released this month requires members of Congress to provide a 72-hour notice before he/she can visit any facility.
• Tear gas, human stampedes, and ICE raids: 100 hours in L.A. – a summary of what transpired in L.A in the last few days as ICE ramped up raids in the popular city.
  Massive anti-ICE protests have cost the city of Los Angeles nearly $20m – out of this staggering amount, the LAPD has ramped up nearly $17million ($11million in overtime alone) and other substantial amounts in damages to buildings.
• As courts review military in L.A., immigration enforcement accelerates – although President Trump has deployed 4000 national Guards and 700 Marines, the battle for the legality of the deployment has moved to the San Francisco federal appeals court.

Core analysis

Part of President Trump’s electoral promises that catapulted him to office for the second time is the promise to tackle the issue of undocumented migrants in the US. During one of his public debates before the election, Mr. Trump accused a certain segment of the migrant community of eating pets such as dogs and of being responsible for the upsurge in the number of violent crimes. To underscore the significance of his promise, President Trump issued an Executive Order dubbed “Protecting the American People Against Invasion” on his first day in office. Mr. President promised to put America first in his decision by removing criminal gangs, people with previous criminal records, etc., thus paving the way to making America safe and freeing more jobs for the citizens.
Part of the initial enforcement involved raids on university campuses, unilateral termination of SEVIS IDs of students without notice, and notices to certain categories of migrants to voluntarily leave the US. However, the implementation has evolved to cancellation of Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for certain countries, immigration raids on courthouses, and total/partial visa bans for certain countries.

Geopolitical Implication

The riot is going to impact many countries in Latin America, especially Mexico, in many ways.
First, California has the highest number of undocumented migrants, mostly from Latin America. Any crackdown and subsequent deportation would impact relationships with countries like Mexico. Deported migrants need to be received, reoriented, and reintegrated into the society. Forced deportation and unplanned returns may put pressure on the existing facilities. If the protest persists, it may force ICE to step up arrests in order to justify the initial arrest.
Second, because a lot of those undocumented migrants work in industries that are currently the focus of ICE raids, it may impact remittances flowing back home. The jobs are temporary and may be daily pay. Remittances have been a significant component of economic sustenance in many of those countries. If migrants are unable to work because of the fear of arrest, their remittances would be at stake.
Third, it may rupture existing diplomatic relationships between the US and the countries whose nationals are involved. Deported people create additional pressure on facilities back home. Deportation involves a lot of diplomatic negotiations. No country would welcome unplanned deportation of its nationals.
Last, the raids could potentially worsen the already lopsided economic/wealth inequality in that area. While businesses may be able to get compensation for their property, the undocumented migrants who depend on daily pay may be worse off if they are unable to go to work. Other aspects of their life might be impacted negatively.

Strategic implications

The current scenario is very fluid and prone to error and significant policy somersault/reversal. The deportation drive, at the moment, is rooted in the interest and direction of President Trump. The project is driven by the MAGA mantra and the quest to put “America First.” What that means is subject to different interpretations, depending on who is involved. However, what is clear is the fact that the outcome would hit differently among states, industries, and sectors. States like California, Texas, New York, and Florida are more likely to be affected than other states due to the higher number of undocumented migrants. Similarly, sectors like Agriculture, Hospitality, Construction, Domestic Work, and Manufacturing are more likely to be impacted than other sectors due to the higher number of undocumented migrants engaged in those sectors. The distributional impacts would take a while before they could be quantified.
Democrat-led states (descriptively referred to as “Sanctuary States”) are potentially going to witness higher scrutiny due to the ongoing friction between President Trump and his predecessor’s immigration policy.

Insider Insight

It is unclear how the deportation raids would unfold in the coming days. What is clear, however, is that President Trump’s expectation is not met yet. It is also clear that the initial intention of limiting the deportation to migrants with criminal records (target enforcement) is also no longer tenable. The President wants a deportation number in the millions. That has necessitated the need to raise ICE’s daily target from an initial 1,000 to 3,000 arrests.

Strategic Recommendation

We recommend extreme caution on the part of foreign nationals desirous of staying in the US. The specific categories of people to be impacted is not clear, and ICE has shown the tendency to interpret the deportation order based on administrative needs and targets. The court is reluctant to intervene in certain areas, while ICE has also designed strategies that may undercut the court process. It is unlikely that things would change in the near future. The potential risk is more significant for certain categories of visas, like F, J, and M, which are subject to stricter monitoring and scrutiny. Potential clients may consider other immigration pathways such as EB1 (various variants) and EB2/NIW that allow applicants to process their green card before entering the United States.
For firms in flashpoint cities and certain sectors like agriculture, there is an urgent need to review staff recruitment to avoid undue exposure to ICE raids and the potential fines. Staff must be trained on what to do when accosted by ICE officers. A dedicated office/officer should be saddled with the responsibility of providing direction for staff. Staff/applicants should be advised to avoid large gatherings, especially politically charged gatherings that could attract ICE officers.