Weekly Geopolitical Intelligence Briefing

From the Birch Intelligence Geopolitical & Business Advisory Team

Global Tensions and Climate Disasters: A Week of International Shifts

29 September 2025

This week’s summary

Key developments this week span international diplomacy, climate emergencies, and technological advancements:

  • Trump administration’s “America First” stance dominated UN General Assembly, creating diplomatic friction
  • Deadly Typhoon Ragasa caused massive displacement across East Asia, with China evacuating nearly 2 million people
  • Nvidia’s $100 billion AI infrastructure investment signals major computing capacity expansion
  • ICE deportation policies now threaten non-citizen veterans despite their military service
  • Trump cancels meeting with Democrats, raising government shutdown concerns

 

Background

 

The geopolitical landscape continues to be shaped by competing visions of international cooperation. At the UN General Assembly, multiple world leaders including France, South Korea, and South Africa endorsed strengthened multilateralism to address global challenges. However, President Trump maintained his “America First” position, criticizing UN inefficiencies while offering nominal support. This fundamental tension between isolationism and globalism characterizes current international relations.

Meanwhile, climate change continues to intensify natural disasters, with Typhoon Ragasa demonstrating the increased frequency and strength of weather systems affecting coastal regions. The storm’s path from Taiwan to Southern China highlights the vulnerability of densely populated coastal areas to extreme weather events.

 

 

Core analysis

The Trump administration’s immigration enforcement has expanded to include previously protected groups. The case of non-citizen veterans facing deportation represents a significant policy shift, as military service traditionally provided pathways to citizenship. Over 100,000 non-citizen veterans now risk removal despite their service records.

Concurrently, the administration is accelerating automation in government services. The upcoming WISeR pilot program will use AI algorithms for Medicare pre-authorization decisions, raising concerns about algorithmic transparency and potential denial of medically necessary services. This reflects a broader trend toward automated governance with limited oversight.

 



Geopolitical Implication

The persistent “America First” stance at international forums creates several ripple effects:

  • Traditional alliances face strain as the US positions itself independently from multilateral initiatives
  • Leadership vacuums in global governance enable other powers to increase their international influence
  • Climate disaster responses remain fragmented without coordinated international effort
  • Technology investment patterns shift as companies like Nvidia make massive bets on AI infrastructure independent of government direction

The combination of political isolationism and severe climate events creates challenges for coordinated global response mechanisms.

 



Strategic implications

Current trends suggest several developing risks:

  • AI and technology investments are becoming increasingly concentrated among few players, creating new “too big to fail” entities
  • Immigration policy uncertainty affects not only undocumented migrants but also legal residents with previously secure status
  • Climate resilience requires significant infrastructure investment that may conflict with austerity measures
  • The blending of military and immigration enforcement creates new legal and ethical dilemmas


Insider Insight

Administration officials indicate the deportation targets have expanded beyond initial scope, with daily arrest quotas increasing significantly. The inclusion of veterans and other previously protected categories suggests enforcement priorities are driven by numerical targets rather than risk-based assessment.



Strategic Recommendation

Organizations should:

  • Review immigration status of all personnel, including those with previously secure status
  • Develop contingency plans for climate-related disruptions in Asian manufacturing and supply chains
  • Monitor AI implementation in government services for potential compliance impacts
  • Diversify international partnerships to mitigate US policy volatility
  • Enhance emergency preparedness for extreme weather events in coastal operations

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