Weekly Geopolitical Intelligence Briefing
From the Birch Intelligence Geopolitical & Business Advisory Team
Bipartisan ISA Interest, Post-Affirmative-Action Law Enrollment Dip, $22B Grad PLUS Shift & Recommendations
11 August 2025
This week’s summary
- Senate HELP Committee heard testimony on Income Share Agreements (ISAs)as alternatives to loans; bipartisan interest noted. Inside Higher Ed
- Data show Black student law school enrollment down 6% year-over-year, first measurable post-affirmative-action dip. ABA Journal
- CBO analysis warns that Grad PLUS abolition will shift $22B over 10 yearsto private lenders. CBO Report
Background
With affirmative action ended, enrollment shifts are being tracked closely by advocacy groups. Student debt reform is moving from cancellation toward structural redesign.
Core analysis
- ISA momentum.Bipartisan curiosity around ISAs reflects search for politically neutral financing tools, but advocates fear exploitation.
- Enrollment shock.Declines in Black enrollment confirm early predictions; long-term diversity of professional leadership at risk.
- Debt migration.The private market windfall underscores the administration’s limited leverage on loan terms once federal programs contract.
Geopolitical Implication
A smaller U.S. pipeline of minority professionals could weaken U.S. diplomatic credibility on equity and inclusion in global forums.
Strategic implications
Elite universities may pivot toward partnership grants with Fortune 500 firms, trading corporate branding for access scholarships.
Insider Insight
Lobbyists signal ISA pilot amendments could be attached to fall budget bills, bypassing partisan fights over loan cancellation.
Strategic Recommendation
Law schools should expand pipeline programs for underrepresented minorities now to avoid reputational and accreditation pressure in 2026.
ABOUT US
We draw on the diverse experience of our global team and trusted senior advisors to deliver nuanced insights and forward-thinking perspectives. At the same time, we invest in the growth of our people—mentoring the next generation of advisors through continuous learning and meaningful opportunity.