Weekly Geopolitical Intelligence Briefing
From the Birch Intelligence Geopolitical & Business Advisory Team
Trump's Police Takeover in Washington and Global Trade Truce: A Week of High-Stakes Moves
18 August 2025
This week’s summary
There are lots of various actions attributable to ICE this week. Few of them are listed below:
- President Trump federalized the Washington D.C. police and deployed the National Guard to the capital, citing a public safety crisis.
- The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day delay on new tariffs, easing immediate trade tensions and boosting global markets.
- EU leaders urged Trump to defend Europe’s security interests ahead of his summit with Putin, amid fears of unilateral concessions on Ukraine.
- The U.S. designated the Baloch Liberation Army as a foreign terrorist organization, aligning with Pakistan’s concerns.
- Asian and global shares rallied on relief over the U.S.-China tariff delay, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting a record high.
- UN investigators reported systematic torture and sexual crimes in Myanmar’s detention facilities.
Background
Trump’s intervention in Washington D.C. echoes historical narratives of federal overreach and racialized crime control. Meanwhile, the 90-day tariff pause with China follows prolonged trade tensions, offering temporary respite but leaving long-term uncertainties. The upcoming Trump-Putin summit has triggered anxiety among European allies, who fear being sidelined in discussions critical to European security. The Baloch separatist designation reinforces U.S.-Pakistan alignment amid shared counterterrorism goals.
Core analysis
Trump’s domestic and foreign policy actions this week reflect a pattern of leveraging crises to assert executive authority. The D.C. police takeover, while framed as a public safety measure, amplifies concerns about militarized governance and civil liberties. The tariff delay with China signals pragmatic flexibility but underscores the fragility of bilateral relations. Europe’s appeal to Trump highlights declining trust in U.S. commitments to multilateral security frameworks. The Baloch terrorist designation illustrates how geopolitical deals (e.g., U.S.-Pakistan trade agreements) influence security policies.
Geopolitical Implication
- S.-China Relations:The tariff truce may temporarily stabilize supply chains and inflation pressures, but structural disputes remain unresolved.
- Europe:Exclusion from Trump-Putin talks could weaken NATO cohesion and incentivize EU strategic autonomy.
- Asia:Territorial clashes in the South China Sea and Trump’s trade policies will test regional stability and economic interdependence.
- Myanmar/Pakistan:International accountability mechanisms (e.g., UN reports) may strain diplomatic ties with regimes accused of abuses.
Strategic implications
Trump’s dual focus on domestic control and transactional diplomacy creates volatility for allies and adversaries. Markets will remain sensitive to trade policy shifts, while security partners may recalibrate reliance on U.S. commitments. Industries like retail and manufacturing could face renewed disruptions if tariff tensions resurface. The D.C. intervention sets a precedent for federal overrides of local governance, potentially escalating conflicts with Democratic-led states.
Insider Insight
Trump’s tariff delay appears driven by short-term economic pressures (e.g., inflation risks) rather than a strategic pivot. Behind the scenes, European officials are exploring contingency plans for potential U.S.-Russia deals on Ukraine. The Baloch designation likely resulted from direct lobbying by Pakistan’s military leadership during recent U.S. visits.
Strategic Recommendation
- Businesses:Diversify supply chains to mitigate tariff uncertainties; monitor U.S.-China negotiations for long-term planning.
- Allies:Strengthen regional security coordination (e.g., EU defense initiatives) to reduce dependency on U.S. guarantees.
- Advocacy Groups:Document federal overreach in D.C. to challenge legal precedents for militarized policing.
- Investors:Hedge against inflation volatility linked to trade policies; prioritize sectors less exposed to Trump’s protectionist agenda.
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