Weekly Geopolitical Intelligence Briefing
From the Birch Intelligence Geopolitical & Business Advisory Team
Indonesia Pledges to Revoke Lawmakers' Perks After Deadly Protests; Major Earthquake Strikes Afghanistan
8 September 2025
This week’s summary
- Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto announced the removal of housing allowances and overseas travel privileges for lawmakers following nationwide protests that left six dead.
- A 6.0-magnitude earthquake in eastern Afghanistan killed over 600 people, with rescue efforts hampered by aftershocks and rugged terrain.
- Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a missile attack near an oil tanker in the Red Sea, escalating regional tensions.
- A vehicle crashed into the Russian consulate in Sydney, resulting in one injured officer and raising diplomatic concerns.
Background
In Indonesia, public outrage erupted over lawmakers’ monthly housing allowances of 50 million rupiah (approx. $3,075), deemed excessive during economic hardship. The protests turned violent, prompting President Prabowo to cancel a planned visit to China and deploy security forces to restore order.
In Afghanistan, the shallow-depth earthquake near Jalalabad devastated vulnerable communities already grappling with drought and displacement. The Taliban-led government has initiated large-scale rescue operations amid limited resources.
Core analysis
The Indonesian protests highlight growing public discontent over economic inequality and perceived government extravagance. Prabowo’s swift reversal of perks aims to curb unrest but may not address underlying grievances about systemic corruption.
The Afghanistan earthquake exacerbates humanitarian crises in a region with fragile infrastructure, underscoring the Taliban’s challenges in disaster response. International aid remains critical.
Geopolitical Implication
- Indonesia’s unrest could strain diplomatic ties if instability deters foreign investment or impacts regional partnerships.
- Afghanistan’s disaster may compel neighboring countries and global organizations to intensify humanitarian support, testing geopolitical alliances.
- Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes threaten international trade and risk escalating conflicts involving Israel and Gulf states.
Strategic implications
- Governments in crisis-prone regions may face heightened scrutiny over fiscal policies and disaster preparedness.
- Organizations operating in affected areas (e.g., Afghanistan, Yemen) should reassess security protocols and humanitarian engagement strategies.
Insider Insight
Indonesian authorities are investigating seven officials linked to the protest response, suggesting potential accountability measures. In Afghanistan, aid groups warn that casualty figures may rise as remote areas remain inaccessible.
Strategic Recommendation
- Monitor regulatory changes in Indonesia regarding public sector benefits and anti-corruption measures.
- Humanitarian actors should coordinate with local authorities in Afghanistan to ensure efficient resource distribution.
- Maritime operators in the Red Sea must enhance security measures amid heightened Houthi threats.
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